They compiled a list of assumptions underlying U.S. foreign policy that was “stunningly long” and then developed scenarios based on what could happen if some we…
Over the longer period, outcomes will depend to a high degree on demographic changes, the effects of which the report declines a number of imaginative potential scenarios—some negative, some positive. Tomas Hellebrandt and Paolo Mauro The National Intelligence Council, 166 pp, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2016. Chinese debt and state investment jeopardize shift to a consumer-driven economy. World on the Move: Consumption Patterns in a More Equal Global Economy. Debates over moral boundaries—to whom is owed what—will become more pronounced, while divergence in values and interests among states will threaten international security.It will be tempting to impose order on this apparent chaos, but that ultimately would be too costly in the short run and would fail in the long. deem to be likely increases in the purchasing power of urban populations and Two years ago, writes Chairman of the National Intelligence Council Gregory Treverton, the Global Trends team began interviewing experts in and out of government around the world – 2,500 people in all, from 35 countries. The main section lays out the key trends, explores their implications, and offers up three scenarios to help readers … Three Scenarios for the Distant Future: Islands, Orbits, CommunitiesWhat The Scenarios Teach Us: Fostering Opportunities Through Resilience The progress of the past decades is historic—connecting people, empowering individuals, groups, and states, and lifting a billion people out of poverty in the process. Advanced economies facing shrinking workforces, diminishing productivity gains and lagged effects of financial crisis. But this same progress also spawned shocks like the Arab Spring, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and the global rise of populist, anti-establishment politics.
National Intelligence Council Global Trends Assessment: Paradox of Progress January 16, 2017 The following assessment is part of a series released every four years by the National Intelligence Council. Global Trends: Paradox of Progress We are living in paradox… Industrial and information age achievements are shaping a world both more dangerous and richer with opportunity. Every four years, the U.S. government’s National Intelligence Council (NIC) addresses in a report the important global economic, political, and societal developments it believes are likely to occur in the near World on the Move: Consumption Patterns in a More Equal Global Economy166 pp, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2016Copyright © 2020 by the Council on Foreign Relations, Inc. 6 GLOBAL TRENDS: PARADOX OF PROGRESS Global Trends and Key Implications Through 2035 The rich are aging, the poor are not. The threat from terrorism will expand in the coming decades as the growing prominence of small groups and individuals use new technologies, ideas, and relationships to their advantage.Similarly, the most resilient societies will likely be those that unleash and embrace the full potential of all individuals—whether women and minorities or those battered by recent economic and technological trends. Doing so domestically would be the end of democracy, resulting in authoritarianism or instability or both. It requires recognizing and then reexamining key assumptions about how the world works. This is the lesson of great power politics in the 1900s, even if those powers had to learn and relearn it.The US and Soviet proxy wars, especially in Vietnam and Afghanistan, were a harbinger of the post-Cold War conflicts and today’s fights in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia in which less powerful adversaries deny victory through asymmetric strategies, ideology, and societal tensions. organizations will increase, further undermining public confidence. If the world were fortunate enough to be able to take advantage of these opportunities, the future would be more benign than our three scenarios suggest. While the opposite will be true as well—destructive forces will be empowered as never before— the central puzzle before governments and societies is how to blend individual, collective, and national endowments in a way that yields sustainable security, prosperity, and hope. Although material strength will remain essential to geopolitical and state power, the most powerful actors of the future will draw on networks, relationships, and information to compete and cooperate. This version was released on January 9, 2017 by … • A near future of slowing rates of As the paradox of progress implies, the same trends generating near-term risks also can create opportunities for better outcomes over the long term. Human choices will determine whether promise or peril prevails. By The National Intelligence Council. Access a free summary of The Progress Paradox, by Gregg Easterbrook and 20,000 other business, leadership and nonfiction books on getAbstract. In all societies, even in the bleakest circumstances, there will be those who choose to improve the welfare, happiness, and security of others—employing transformative technologies to do so at scale. Global Trends: Paradox of Progress. They will be moving with, rather than against, historical currents, making use of the ever- expanding scope of human skill to shape the future. By Tomas Hellebrandt and Paolo Mauro. 226 pp, National Intelligence Council, 2017. Purchase. Key Trends: Past Progress, Tomorrow’s Paradox Political Economy and Geopolitics • Shifting global economy. Dominating empowered, proliferating actors in multiple domains would require unacceptable resources in an era of slow growth, fiscal limits, and debt burdens. These shocks reveal how fragile the achievements have been, underscoring deep shifts in the global landscape that portend a dark and difficult near future.Underlying this crisis in cooperation will be local, national, and international differences about the proper role of government across an array of issues ranging from the economy to the environment, religion, security, and the rights of individuals.

Thinking about the future is hard.


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